Labour in Freefall

The Independent reports on the latest opinion poll in Scotland which shows Labour in political free fall with its Scottish leader, Jim Murphy, in danger of losing his own East Renfrewshire seat.

Now that may be bad news for a large group of largely useless Labour MPs, who have been completely silent on the subject of equal pay for the past five years, but it also heralds the prospect of the biggest shake-up of the Westminster Parliament in generations.

So 'fingers crossed' that the polls are correct.  

General election 2015: Labour faces wipeout in Scotland as poll shows Miliband may be left with just one Scottish MP

Ed Miliband ruled out a deal with the SNP over the weekend

JON STONE

Monday 27 April 2015 

Scottish Labour could be left with just one Member of Parliament after the general election as a new poll shows the party slumping to just 22% of the vote.

The survey by TNS found Nicola Sturgeon’s SNP on 54% – a figure higher than any recorded for the party – with Labour hitting a new low in its former heartland.

The score for Jim Murphy’s party means Labour is down 20% north of the border since the last election, having won 42% of the vote in 2010 when it was led by Iain Gray MSP.

The SNP has a huge lead

The Electoral Calculus projection shows the SNP dominating

According to a projection by the website Electoral Calculus, the figures in the poll would give the SNP 57 of Scotland's 59 seats.

Labour and the Liberal Democrats would be left with a single MP each were the results of the poll repeated on polling day with a uniform swing.

The survey saw the SNP rise 2% and Jim Murphy’s fall 2% since the last study by the same pollster.

The poll comes after a local survey shows Scottish Labour Mr Murphy 9% behind the SNP in his own seat – meaning he could lose it on May 7.

Labour has collapsed

Labour's support has also collapsed on a vote share basis.

In January Mr Murphy told BuzzFeed News he was surprised how easy it had been to campaign against the SNP.

“I’ve been so surprised by their lack of energy," he said at the time.

The catastrophe for the party in Scotland comes despite gains in the rest of the UK.

The headline voting intention figures in the poll put Labour on 22%, the SNP on 54%, the Conservatives on 13%, and the Liberal Demorats on 6%. Ukip and the Green Party scored 2% each respectively.

Ed Miliband this weekend ruled out a deal of any kind with the SNP, saying there would be telling the Andrew Marr should he would consider “no coalition, no tie-ins, I have said no deals”.

Scottish Labour's leader could end up getting the boot

Jim Murphy set is to lose his East Renfrewshire seat.
However, the Daily Telegraph reports that a consultancy firm run by Lord Mandelson has released a document saying that Ed Miliband may have “little choice” but to do a deal with the nationalists in the event of a hung parliament.

The SNP say they will vote to remove David Cameron from Downing Street.

Nicola Sturgeon told Sky News today: "If there is a minority government, if no party has a majority, then it's simply not possible to ignore the views of other parties.

"I know that, I was part of a minority government in the Scottish Parliament. If the SNP has a large number of MPs, firstly we can use that clout to keep the Tories out secondly we can use it to make sure the Tories are replaced with something better, bolder and more progressive. I suspect Ed Miliband will change his tune once the votes are cast."