Referendums, Majorities and Settled Wills
Have updated my independence poll tracker with this morning's numbers, and in order to better visualise the mass of recent polling I've done an excerpt just showing from Jan 2020 as well. pic.twitter.com/ie4fboWBpt
— Duncan Hothersall🌹 (@dhothersall) April 22, 2021
The latest opinion polls confirm that support for independence has dipped again and does not come anywhere near representing the settled will of the Scottish people.
Which means that any strategy for winning independence by achieving 50% + 1 of the vote in a future referendum is completely crazy.
Because anything less than a significant win would result in the losing side refusing to accept the outcome and trying to overturn a result they don't like.
Interestingly, even the SNP insists on a two-thirds majority to approve changes to the party's constitution.
So maybe it's time for a rethink on what the ground rules ought to be for any future referendums, on indy or anything else, having learned some lessons from what happened in 2014 and 2016.