Be Careful
Here's an interesting article that appeared in the Times the other day - from a chap at the Fabians Society, Marcus Roberts.
I've highlighted a couple of paragraphs in bold because in my view the Westminster Parliament is entering some dangerous territory - if a governing party can be elected with a majority of MPs having won only 40% or less of the popular vote.
If that were to happen, I'm convinced that anti-politics mood of UK voters will become even more cynical - since the country will end up with a majority government, but one elected by only a minority of the popular vote.
Yet that is exactly what certain elements of the Labour Party are aiming for - as if they'd never heard of the saying 'Be careful what you wish for'.
Miliband can build a new Labour majority
By Marcus Roberts
Defections from the Liberal Democrats explain why Labour is the favourite to win the next election
Despite narrowing opinion polls there are good reasons why Ed Miliband remains the bookies’ favourite to be the next Prime Minister. For Britain’s electoral system is so broken that he could end up as prime minister on a technicality. Even if he gets fewer votes than David Cameron, the Labour leader could still get more seats in Parliament — as happened at the 1974 and 1951 elections.
Some Labour supporters are fixated on the possibility that they can win a majority with just 35 per cent of the vote, but the party must aim higher in the 18 months that remain between now and polling day. A 35 per cent strategy would lack both ethics and efficacy. Claiming to lead a “One Nation Party”, Mr Miliband must pursue a 40 per cent strategy and build a new election-winning coalition.
Labour’s new coalition has five components, but two provide the core. The voters who stuck with the party at the last election — the loyalest of the loyal — and also hundreds of thousands of left-leaning Liberal Democrat voters who deserted Nick Clegg’s party when he formed his coalition with David Cameron.
These two groups take Labour to the edge of victory but they are not quite sufficient for a parliamentary majority. To hit 40 per cent, Labour will also need a significant increase in turnout from working-class voters who sat out the 2010 election, and from younger voters who’ve been stung by the coalition’s tuition fees, housing and welfare policies.
Labour must unite middle and working-class voters with a policy offer that speaks to both. The great recession has exacerbated the living standards crisis that began even before the credit crunch — and on Labour’s watch. Both groups are now squeezed by falling real incomes and rising prices.
Labour must offer a radical response to these serious challenges. A jobs guarantee in place of constant welfare, an interest-rate cap to control debt and a big house-building programme are some flagship initiatives that Jon Cruddas MP, leader of Labour’s policy review, has been exploring. This policy agenda is only credible if Labour can persuade the British people that it will be funded by switching public spending from treating Britain’s problems to preventing them emerging in the first place. The public won’t vote for higher taxes and higher borrowing alone.
Labour cannot rely on a sceptical media to deliver this message. Instead, party general secretary Iain McNicol’s early recruitment of candidates and organisers in battleground seats will help to win the communications war. Also notable is the work of the US community organiser Arnie Graf, who is training activists to move beyond traditional leafleting campaigns. There’s a shift towards single-issue campaigning against predatory payday loan companies, for example, or for a living wage. This kind of issues-based politics appeals to both hard-to-reach younger voters and low turnout working class voters alike.
Additionally, Labour’s increased use of targeting techniques — inspired by Barack Obama’s mining of big data — allows activists to knock on the right doors and send direct mail to the right homes. It means that even as the party pursues a 40 per cent strategy nationally, its ground game can be ruthlessly targeted at the 400,000 voters in battleground seats including 16 4,000 people who didn’t vote in 2010 and 32,000 Tories. If Mr Miliband connects with all those voters he’ll win the 73 seats that will give him a parliamentary majority of 20.
Mr Miliband must dare to embrace a more radical policy agenda with a few big signature policies. Together, the radical politics of Mr Cruddas and the powerful campaign strategy of Mr McNicol and Mr Graf can ensure that he doesn’t sneak into Downing Street on a technicality, but walks proudly through the front door with a clear majority. As the Obama campaign proved in 2008, a relentless targeting of key voters is the best way to bypass a hostile media environment.
Five strands of a winning Labour coalition
Labour base
In 2010 Labour won 29.5 per cent of the electorate. Come 2015, two points of this vote will disappear because of natural causes, including death and migration. This means that the party needs to make sure that its remaining 27.5 per cent turn out to vote. This should not be difficult given that Labour voters who chose Gordon Brown are likely to be angry with the coalition for spending cuts and its reforms to public services such as the NHS.
Lib Dem converts
Labour needs to win just over one in four of the voters who backed Nick Clegg in 2010. In other words, 6.5 points of the people who voted Liberal Democrat in 2010 are needed to switch to Labour. To win this many votes, the party must keep the Lib Dem national vote below
15 per cent. They are anti-cuts, anti-Iraq war, pro-civil liberties and disappointed with Nick Clegg in the coalition. Their political views are naturally aligned with Ed Miliband’s politics and they should be low-hanging fruit for Labour.
New voters Labour needs to add
2.5 per cent of new voters to get to 40 per cent. The trebling of tuition fees and welfare cuts that have fallen heavily on the young should be more than enough reason for them to support Labour if, like Barack Obama, the party can get them registered and motivated to get to polling stations.
Non-voters
Labour also needs 2.5 points from people who didn’t vote last time. Statistics show that disenchanted people who choose not to vote are generally working class and often susceptible to UKIP. To win over these potential voters the party needs a clear line on immigration and welfare. It should put a greater emphasis on integration of migrants. On welfare, it should explain that the best way to cut the benefits bill is to create better-paid jobs and build
more houses.
Conservatives
Miliband cannot win a majority without some Tory converts. Fortunately, this strategy calls for Labour to win just one point from the Tories’ 2010 showing. In a bellwether battleground constituency, this translates into roughly 400 voters. This shouldn’t be too difficult for good Labour candidates to achieve.
Marcus Roberts served as Field Director on Ed Miliband’s leadership campaign. His report on Labour’s path to victory can be read on the Fabian Society’s website: www.fabians.org.uk/
