Herd Immunity and Joyous, Civic Nationalism

I was having a friendly disagreement with another Twitter user the other day on the Scottish Government's handling of the Coronavirus epidemic in which I said:

"Seems to me the Scottish Government has made the same or very similar mistakes (as the UK Government) over: the timing of lockdown, initial ‘herd immunity’ strategy, availability of PPE, discharge of hospital patients into care homes, the quality and availability of testing, return of students etc"

My fellow Twitter user (Aunty Shirley @shirleymcbrinn) disputed the existence of a 'herd immunity' strategy, before rudely demanding that I provide her with explanatory link.

For my troubles I was then even more rudely blocked while in the process of sending a helpful response.

So here is it - Professor Jason Leitch, Scotland's National Clinical Director, waxing lyrical about 'herd immunity' back in March 2020.

I won't hold my breath for an apology from Aunty Shirley, but how's that for joyous, civic nationalism?

  

Coronavirus - Then and Now (28/05/20)

Here's an interesting Channel 4 interview with Scotland's national clinical director, Jason Leitch who was speaking on behalf of the Scottish Government on 16 March 2020, the week before the current lockdown was imposed. 

Here are some key points that jump out to me, albeit with the benefit of hindsight which was not available to the decision-makers at the time: 

• Original prediction was that 80% of the population would become infected with most suffering mild symptoms

• NHS staff testing - but only if showing symptoms

• No mention of care staff or hospital patients discharged to  care homes or their own homes

• Scotland has adequate testing in place

• Scotland and the rest of the UK in the context of World Health Organisation (WHO) advice 

• Contact with the elderly and other vulnerable groups

• Spread of the Coronavirus by people with no symptoms 

• The importance of social distancing - at the right moment

• The impact of lockdown measures on Scotland's care homes 

• Part of the strategy was to develop herd immunity because "you can't get rid of the virus"

• Contact tracing was dropped in Phase 2 as part of the agreed UK wide strategy 

Now I make no personal criticism of Mr Leitch because he was putting across a very carefully crafted message on behalf of the Scottish Government which politicians turned into public policy having weighed up the best available scientific evidence.

Yet it seems crystal clear, even now, that a major weakness of the agreed government strategy was the role played in spreading the virus far and wide - by people who were already infected without showing any symptoms of Covid-19.

I would also say that government lost sight of the need to make social care and care homes as big a priority as the NHS. 

But do make time listen to Jason Leitch's Channel 4 interview and decide for yourself.