Independence - Good or Bad?
So the Eastleigh by-election resulted in a win for the Liberal Democrats - which is a potential game-changer in more ways than one.
The widely predicted political demise of the Lib Dems did not materialise - even against the background of a 'sex scandal' (well a sex scandal by Lib Dem standards anyway) - and the reputational damage done by the resignation of the sitting Lib Dem MP (Chris Huhne) who will soon be heading for jail.
The surprise package was the showing of UKIP (the UK Independence Party) which pushed the Tories into third place and Labour into fourth - all of which has potential and interesting implications for Scotland.
Because on this UKIP showing there is now a distinct possibility that the planned referendum on the UK's membership of the European Union (EU) - scheduled to take place in 2017 - will result in a vote to leave the EU.
Yet there is nothing like the same support for pulling out of the EU in Scotland - as there appears to be in much of England - especially in 'middle' England and the south of England where the Labour party is relatively weak - as the Eastleigh by-election shows.
In essence UKIP is a very English phenomenon - since the party has no seats in Scotland and is unlikely to have any - in the foreseeable future either.
Because UKIP has this rather strange policy stance of believing that independence - having control over your own destiny (whatever that means) - is a matter of great principle when it comes to Europe - but is not remotely desirable in the context of the UK.
In that sense it's a bit like George Orwell's famous book - Animal Farm - when the 'Four Legs Good, Two Legs Bad' rule was rewritten by Napoleon and his fellow pigs after the new porcine rulers of Animal Farm decided to emulate their previous (human) masters - by walking on two feet.
So after Eastleigh it looks more possible than ever - that a referendum in 2017 could result in the UK pulling out of the European Union - and to my mind that would be bad for Scotland.
All of which makes me think to myself:
'If Scotland could be 'hijacked' out of Europe by a UKIP inspired coup (referendum) in 2017 - would it be better to vote for independence in 2014 since Scotland, as a nation, seems perfectly happy to remain within the EU?"
