Yes or No

I don't think we really needed an academic from Oxford University to tell us something we already know - that the majority of voters support the Scottish Parliament having more powers.

But the political establishment has contrived to keep a second question on more powers off the ballot paper in next year's referendum - so there will be a straight Yes or No vote on whether Scotland should become an independent country on 18 September 2014.

Although Marius Ostrowski is right to point out whatever happens nothing will stay as it is - if the Scottish people vote Yes, all of the decision making powers vested in the Westminster Parliament will be transferred to Holyrood.

Yet even if the country votes No, the demands reflected in the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey will intensify - because people want to loosen ties with Westminster as they have more confidence that the Scottish Parliament will look after their interests. 

Stark question fails to reflect what most Scottish voters want

Analysis Marius Ostrowski

The stark divide between “Yes” and “No” in the independence debate hides an uncomfortable truth: neither outcome really reflects the answer most Scottish voters want to give. There is clear appetite for more power transfers from Westminster to Holyrood, especially on tax and spending.

The 2012 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey found majorities of 56 per cent for giving Scotland control over tax, and 64 per cent for devolving responsibility for welfare, the largest part of public spending, in line with 66 per cent and 63 per cent for health and education policy, both already devolved. It is less clear whether either “Yes” or “No” offer the best way for this demand to be met.

There is a lot potentially on the table for Scotland if it stays in the Union. Nearly all of the most lucrative parts of tax revenue, including income and corporation tax, could be fully devolved to Scottish control, with the rest, such as VAT, North Sea oil revenue, and excise duties, assigned by geographic share. The real question is how devolving a package of tax powers fits into a coherent vision for Scotland, and how different such a vision could be from the direction of the UK as a whole. The ongoing climate of fiscal sustainability, and the need to preserve a “social Union” across the UK, would impose clear limits on Scotland’s ability to use the fiscal levers at its disposal to vary tax policy significantly from UK levels.

Meanwhile, Scotland’s fiscal approach as an independent country would not be radically different from the constrained autonomy available under extensive devolution. The Scottish government’s position of keeping both pound sterling and EU membership entails its own constraints in the guise of UK fiscal prudence rules and European fiscal harmonisation. Scotland could only hope to avoid these under a more aspirational model of independence, involving a separate Scottish currency and looser ties to European institutions. The close economic integration of Scotland with the UK and wider EU also puts Scottish tax and spending at the mercy of public and market confidence, which will further restrict Scotland’s ability to convert its newly-achieved fiscal control into extensive policy variation.

Whichever way Scotland ultimately votes, it has the ability to take on extensive fiscal policy control, but limited short-term capacity to wield it to radical effect. Yet the long-term trend is still towards greater local autonomy, in the UK and abroad. So we cannot take the “No” campaign’s persistent poll lead as a sign that Scots do not want to have more autonomy. Rather, it shows that they feel the autonomy debate has taken a wrong turn, away from the “devo max” model originally mooted as an additional referendum option.

In coming months, both sides in the referendum campaign must therefore look past the referendum result, and prepare to answer the Scottish public’s demands for autonomy in the post-referendum negotiations which will decide the future of Scotland’s political and economic relationship with the rest of the UK.

Marius Ostrowski is an Examination Fellow in Politics at All Souls College, University of Oxford, and Head of Research at the All-Party Parliamentary Taxation Group, UK Parliament.