Tug of War
The tactics of the two 'east versus west camps' reminded me of the current debate on Scottish independence - and the referendum scheduled for September 2014.
The 'west is best' supporters in the Ukraine come across to me as kindred spirits of the Yes campaign in Scotland - optimistic, take your courage in both hands and be positive about what your country can achieve.
Whereas the siren call of the pro-Russia camp is broadly the same as the Better Together camp in Scotland - better the devil you know, accentuate the negative and play on people's fears.
Ukraine faces critical east-west tug of war over EU association agreement
EU deal would allow Ukraine free trade with Europe, and is seen as symbolic move away from former Communist masters
By Oksana Grytsenko in Kiev and Shaun Walker in Moscow
Support for jailed former Ukrainian prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko, who is in the middle of the tug of war over the EU agreement. Photograph: Gleb Garanich/Reuters
Standing by a tent adorned with EU flags in Kiev's Independence Square, Vitali Selyk hands out leaflets declaring: "For a European future." A few hundred metres away, posters outside the metro station warn that closer ties with the EU will lead Ukraine down a path of rising prices, job losses and legalised gay marriages.
These different visions of the future reflect rising tension in Ukraine in the face of a critical east-or-west moment. Next week, an association agreement with the EU is on the table at a summit in Vilnius, Lithuania. While falling short of giving Ukraine EU member status, the agreement provides for free trade with Europe and is seen as a symbolic move westward, away from the former Communist masters in Moscow.
A furious Kremlin has used a combination of small potential carrots and huge potential sticks, warning that if Ukraine signs the agreement it could lead to economic turmoil and political unrest. Moscow wants Ukraine to join its own free trade grouping, the customs union of Russia, Belarus andKazakhstan, which many have seen as an effort to reconstitute elements of the Soviet Union.
In the middle of this tug of war sits the jailed former prime minister, Yulia Tymoshenko. Ukraine's rulers have said they want to sign the EU deal, but they could end up sabotaging it if President Viktor Yanukovych does not release Tymoshenko by next week. European leaders have said many times that she must be released before a deal can be signed, but parliament has repeatedly stalled on passing the required legislation.
"If we get the association agreement, then at least my children will live a better life," says Selyk, 24. "But if we join the customs union, then all will remain the same."
Those who oppose the EU deal have pointed to crippling consequences for Ukraine's troubled economy, which is stuck in a spiral of negative growth. Hit by weaker demand for its exports, Ukraine's credit ratings have been cut as the country's foreign reserves fell in October to their lowest since 2006. Eurosceptics say that Ukraine's creaking factories will be forced to conform to EU standards in an implausibly short time, causing chaos and reducing production.
"At least 20 million people will lose their jobs," said Olena Markosian, chief analyst of Ukrainsky Vybor, a pro-Russian group headed by Viktor Medvedchuk, a friend of the Russian president, Vladimir Putin. Markosian calls Ukraine's move towards the EU a scam that will be painful for the industrial eastern regions of Ukraine, economically the most dependent on Russia.
Ukraine suffers from an acute regional and demographic split, with residents of the west and centre as well as the young more pro-European, while the eastern and southern regions and elderly people are more orientated towards Russia. Although the number of Ukrainians who support the agreement with the EU has risen since last summer, it is still only at 45% according to a poll. Only 14% support joining the pro-Russian block.
Outraged by Ukraine's movements to push ahead with the EU deal, Russia applied trade sanctions against a number of Ukrainian goods earlier this year, including pipes and chocolate. In late October, Russia introduced customs procedures hampering clearance for trucks exporting goods from Ukraine, leading to lengthy traffic jams at the border. The Kremlin's point man on Ukraine said if the deal was signed, Russia could cease to recognise Ukraine's status as a state.
Petro Poroshenko, a former minister, said that after Russia banned the products of his confectionery company Roshen, purchases in Ukraine increased by 13%, and there were calls to boycott Russian goods across Ukraine.
But recently, authorities seem to have yielded to Russian pressure. On 9 November, Yanukovych visited Putin in Moscow, a trip made in almost complete secrecy. A few days later, Ukraine's parliament, where the majority of seats are controlled by the pro-presidential Party of Regions, failed to pass the final three laws to fulfil the demands posed by Brussels in order to successfully sign the deal. The same day Ukraine's prime minister, Mykola Azarov, said that the normalisation of relations with Russia was "issue number one for national policy".
"These signals from the ruling party show some proposals came from Russia, and they were quite significant," says Oleksandr Sushko, of the Institute for Euro-Atlantic Co-operation in Kiev. He suggested the incentives could include promises of cheaper gas, favourable loans or personal advantages for Yanukovych. "The ruling party would like the EU to react to this and soften its demands."
European leaders have made it clear that Ukraine needs to free Tymoshenko, co-leader of the 2004 Orange Revolution against fraudulent elections that ultimately prevented Yanukovych from assuming the presidency. After losing to Yanukovych by just a few per cent in 2010, Tymoshenko was put on trial and sentenced to seven years in jail for exceeding her authority as prime minister, in a case widely seen as an attempt by the president to oust his political rival.
European mediators have promoted the idea of sending Tymoshenko, who suffers from severe back pain, to Germany for medical treatment, as a compromise allowing Yanukovych to save face. But his party has blocked any attempts to pass the bill in parliament. A further attempt to do so on Tuesday was postponed until Thursday. Oleksandr Yefremov, leader of the Party of Regions parliamentary faction, said there was only a 50% chance that the laws needed for the signing of the EU deal would be passed this week
Sushko said Yanukovych was hoping Europe would agree to sign the deal without freeing Tymoshenko and also grant Ukraine financial assistance. "This is a risky game, in which both Ukraine and Europe may lose to Putin," he said.
Russia's belligerence has given the deal symbolic importance for Brussels as well as Kiev. As EU officials begin to realise that Tymoshenko may not be released in time, there are some who want to press ahead anyway, to avoid Ukraine slipping back into Russia's orbit.
It would be an embarrassing climbdown, given how many times European leaders have stressed that the agreement is impossible without her release, but if at a dinner during the summit next week Yanukovych gives his word that he will release her in the coming months, a last-minute compromise arrangement could be possible.
Poroshenko, who is also an opposition MP, said he was still optimistic on Ukraine's chances of signing the historic pact with the EU. "If it doesn't happen, Ukraine will lose the trust of the entire world," he said. "I believe that common sense should win through."
Ukraine faces critical east-west tug of war over EU association agreement
EU deal would allow Ukraine free trade with Europe, and is seen as symbolic move away from former Communist masters
By Oksana Grytsenko in Kiev and Shaun Walker in Moscow
Support for jailed former Ukrainian prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko, who is in the middle of the tug of war over the EU agreement. Photograph: Gleb Garanich/Reuters
Standing by a tent adorned with EU flags in Kiev's Independence Square, Vitali Selyk hands out leaflets declaring: "For a European future." A few hundred metres away, posters outside the metro station warn that closer ties with the EU will lead Ukraine down a path of rising prices, job losses and legalised gay marriages.
These different visions of the future reflect rising tension in Ukraine in the face of a critical east-or-west moment. Next week, an association agreement with the EU is on the table at a summit in Vilnius, Lithuania. While falling short of giving Ukraine EU member status, the agreement provides for free trade with Europe and is seen as a symbolic move westward, away from the former Communist masters in Moscow.
A furious Kremlin has used a combination of small potential carrots and huge potential sticks, warning that if Ukraine signs the agreement it could lead to economic turmoil and political unrest. Moscow wants Ukraine to join its own free trade grouping, the customs union of Russia, Belarus andKazakhstan, which many have seen as an effort to reconstitute elements of the Soviet Union.
In the middle of this tug of war sits the jailed former prime minister, Yulia Tymoshenko. Ukraine's rulers have said they want to sign the EU deal, but they could end up sabotaging it if President Viktor Yanukovych does not release Tymoshenko by next week. European leaders have said many times that she must be released before a deal can be signed, but parliament has repeatedly stalled on passing the required legislation.
"If we get the association agreement, then at least my children will live a better life," says Selyk, 24. "But if we join the customs union, then all will remain the same."
Those who oppose the EU deal have pointed to crippling consequences for Ukraine's troubled economy, which is stuck in a spiral of negative growth. Hit by weaker demand for its exports, Ukraine's credit ratings have been cut as the country's foreign reserves fell in October to their lowest since 2006. Eurosceptics say that Ukraine's creaking factories will be forced to conform to EU standards in an implausibly short time, causing chaos and reducing production.
"At least 20 million people will lose their jobs," said Olena Markosian, chief analyst of Ukrainsky Vybor, a pro-Russian group headed by Viktor Medvedchuk, a friend of the Russian president, Vladimir Putin. Markosian calls Ukraine's move towards the EU a scam that will be painful for the industrial eastern regions of Ukraine, economically the most dependent on Russia.
Ukraine suffers from an acute regional and demographic split, with residents of the west and centre as well as the young more pro-European, while the eastern and southern regions and elderly people are more orientated towards Russia. Although the number of Ukrainians who support the agreement with the EU has risen since last summer, it is still only at 45% according to a poll. Only 14% support joining the pro-Russian block.
Outraged by Ukraine's movements to push ahead with the EU deal, Russia applied trade sanctions against a number of Ukrainian goods earlier this year, including pipes and chocolate. In late October, Russia introduced customs procedures hampering clearance for trucks exporting goods from Ukraine, leading to lengthy traffic jams at the border. The Kremlin's point man on Ukraine said if the deal was signed, Russia could cease to recognise Ukraine's status as a state.
Petro Poroshenko, a former minister, said that after Russia banned the products of his confectionery company Roshen, purchases in Ukraine increased by 13%, and there were calls to boycott Russian goods across Ukraine.
But recently, authorities seem to have yielded to Russian pressure. On 9 November, Yanukovych visited Putin in Moscow, a trip made in almost complete secrecy. A few days later, Ukraine's parliament, where the majority of seats are controlled by the pro-presidential Party of Regions, failed to pass the final three laws to fulfil the demands posed by Brussels in order to successfully sign the deal. The same day Ukraine's prime minister, Mykola Azarov, said that the normalisation of relations with Russia was "issue number one for national policy".
"These signals from the ruling party show some proposals came from Russia, and they were quite significant," says Oleksandr Sushko, of the Institute for Euro-Atlantic Co-operation in Kiev. He suggested the incentives could include promises of cheaper gas, favourable loans or personal advantages for Yanukovych. "The ruling party would like the EU to react to this and soften its demands."
European leaders have made it clear that Ukraine needs to free Tymoshenko, co-leader of the 2004 Orange Revolution against fraudulent elections that ultimately prevented Yanukovych from assuming the presidency. After losing to Yanukovych by just a few per cent in 2010, Tymoshenko was put on trial and sentenced to seven years in jail for exceeding her authority as prime minister, in a case widely seen as an attempt by the president to oust his political rival.
European mediators have promoted the idea of sending Tymoshenko, who suffers from severe back pain, to Germany for medical treatment, as a compromise allowing Yanukovych to save face. But his party has blocked any attempts to pass the bill in parliament. A further attempt to do so on Tuesday was postponed until Thursday. Oleksandr Yefremov, leader of the Party of Regions parliamentary faction, said there was only a 50% chance that the laws needed for the signing of the EU deal would be passed this week
Sushko said Yanukovych was hoping Europe would agree to sign the deal without freeing Tymoshenko and also grant Ukraine financial assistance. "This is a risky game, in which both Ukraine and Europe may lose to Putin," he said.
Russia's belligerence has given the deal symbolic importance for Brussels as well as Kiev. As EU officials begin to realise that Tymoshenko may not be released in time, there are some who want to press ahead anyway, to avoid Ukraine slipping back into Russia's orbit.
It would be an embarrassing climbdown, given how many times European leaders have stressed that the agreement is impossible without her release, but if at a dinner during the summit next week Yanukovych gives his word that he will release her in the coming months, a last-minute compromise arrangement could be possible.
Poroshenko, who is also an opposition MP, said he was still optimistic on Ukraine's chances of signing the historic pact with the EU. "If it doesn't happen, Ukraine will lose the trust of the entire world," he said. "I believe that common sense should win through."
From PM to prisoner
1990s Head of United Energy Systems of Ukraine (UESU), where she was nicknamed the "Gas Princess".
1996 Becomes an MP.
2000 Appointed deputy PM (in charge of energy).
2004 Pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovych becomes president of Ukraine but election is widely seen as rigged.
2004 Tymoshenko leads the Orange revolution, along with ally Viktor Yushchenko. Yanukovych is overthrown.
2005 Yushchenko becomes president and Tymoshenko prime minister. She is later sacked eight months later by her former ally.
2007-2010 Tymoshenko returns as PM.
2009 Signs a controversial gas deal with Russia.
2010 Beaten by Yanukovych in presidential election.
2011 Jailed for seven years for abuse of power, accused of doing gas deal detrimental to Ukraine.
2013 European court of human rights rules that Tymoshenko's arrest was illegal and politically motivated.
1990s Head of United Energy Systems of Ukraine (UESU), where she was nicknamed the "Gas Princess".
1996 Becomes an MP.
2000 Appointed deputy PM (in charge of energy).
2004 Pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovych becomes president of Ukraine but election is widely seen as rigged.
2004 Tymoshenko leads the Orange revolution, along with ally Viktor Yushchenko. Yanukovych is overthrown.
2005 Yushchenko becomes president and Tymoshenko prime minister. She is later sacked eight months later by her former ally.
2007-2010 Tymoshenko returns as PM.
2009 Signs a controversial gas deal with Russia.
2010 Beaten by Yanukovych in presidential election.
2011 Jailed for seven years for abuse of power, accused of doing gas deal detrimental to Ukraine.
2013 European court of human rights rules that Tymoshenko's arrest was illegal and politically motivated.
