Coalition on the Cards

I don't have a vote in the forthcoming Eastleigh by-election - but if I did I think I would cast mine in favour of the Liberal Democrats.

My reasoning is simple: it's effectively a two-horse race between the Lib Dems - who currently hold the seat - and the Tories, but as far as I can see the Tory candidate (Maria Hutchings) is  barking mad - politically speaking, of course.

For example, Maria's a very different Tory to the Prime Minister - David Cameron - she is very anti-Europe and apparently would vote to withdraw from the EU altogether - if  an In/Out referendum were held today.

Maria is also against same sex marriage - not the biggest political 'crime' in the world maybe - but it puts her in the unreformed and unreconstructed wing of the Tory Party - which made the Conservatives completely unelectable for many years - not long after John Major (the last Tory Prime Minister) won the 1992 general election.

So although the Lib Dems might yet be punished - since the sitting MP (Chris Huhne)  resigned his seat in disgrace for perverting the course of justice and lying about his speeding misdeeds to the court - the Lib Dem candidate (Mike Thornton) seems the best of a bad lot, if you ask me.

And if that is the judgement of the voters in Eastleigh on Thursday, then the Lib Dems will not have collapsed - which means that the party is far from dead and buried and, in turn, suggests  that the outcome of the next election is likely to be - another coalition government.

Which is as it should be, I suppose - since none of the major parties can command a majority of the popular vote and form a popular government with the support of only 40% of the electorate - or less.

Like many other people I have my criticisms of the Coalition Government - but the fact is that any other form of government is a form of tryanny - and that is exactly what I said in a previous post about the First Past The Post (FPTP) electoral system still used for Westminster elections - but in very few other countries around the world.

First Past The Post (15 January 2013)

A spate of opinion polls have been published in recent weeks which suggest that the Labour party - out of all the major UK parties - enjoys the most public support.

Now this is hardly surprising given that we are now beyond the half-way point of a coalition government - assuming it lasts a whole five years - which has had to take some very unpopular decisions given the terrible mess of the UK economy.

Decisions that the Labour party would have had to make as well of course - if it were still in government - as the former Labour chancellor, Alistair Darling, admitted in advance of the 2010 general election.

'Spending cuts were inevitable, greater than those which took place under Mrs Thatcher's government' - or words to that effect was the message from Alistair Darling, as he told things straight to his party and the country.

But the real significance of recent polls is not that they put Labour is in the lead at this point in time - at around 39% - but that the party comes nowhere near commanding the support of a majority of the electorate.

And just as they did in 2010 the polls are likely to narrow as general election looms - just as the Conservative lead last time round got squeezed - leaving the party with less than 40% of the electorate's support and no option but to form a coalition government with the Lib Dems.

The point being that no single party will have a mandate to govern the country under the First Past The Post System - which is now only used for elections to the Westminster Parliament.

Elections to every other Parliament - the Scottish and European Parliaments - are conducted under some form of proportional representation - which is also the case for local councils in Scotland and elections to the Wales Assembly and Legislative Assembly in Northern Ireland.

So coalition politics and coalition governments are here to stay - a fact of political life.

The question is whether or not Labour has the brains to get rid of FPTP and bring in a voting system which prevents a minority government taking power - with less than 40% of the popular vote.

In the 1980s just about everyone - including the Labour party - who did not support the Tories and Margaret Thatcher declared the Conservative Government of the day to be an 'elected dictatorship' - because it had won the election on 40% of the popular vote.

Yet MrsThatcher bulldozed her government's policies through the House of Commons with a FPTP majority of MPs - uninterested in the views or complaints of the opposition parties and 60% of the electorate who did not support the Tory party.

Ever since that time the UN, the UK and every other progressive government around the world has encouraged emerging democratic countries to embrace PR (proportional representation) - as a way of bringing peace and stability to troubled lands.

From the former satellite states of the Soviet Union to the countries which emerged from the break up of the former Yugoslavia - from Northern Ireland to Iraq to the countries of the Arab Spring the solution urged on has been the same: representative government or power sharing.

Because under PR minority parties cannot behave like tyrannies - as they do in Syria at the moment, for example - because they have to come to an accommodation with other groups and parties - to get the wheels of government turning effectively.

And by and large I think that's a good thing - which is why the UK should ditch FPTP for Westminster elections - because it's a fundamentally undemocratic way to govern the country.