Rabbits and Foxes

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Dan Hodges writing in The Telegraph sets out a sober assessment of the 2015 budget which produced no new rabbits while shooting plenty of foxes. 

George Osborne got the economics right. That's what has killed Labour

Labour's foxes have been killed in the most boring way imaginable: sensible economic policy


Photo: REUTERS



By Dan Hodges - The Telegraph

As I wrote yesterday, George Osborne wasn’t interested in using this Budget to pull any rabbits from any hats. Instead, he used it to shoot Labour foxes.

The attack line that Tory cuts would take public spending back to levels not seen since the 1930s was neutralised. Public spending will now be cut to levels not seen since Gordon Brown was sticking pins into dolls of Tony Blair.

The line George Osborne had failed to meet his original deficit reduction target was neutralised. Debt will start falling as a share of GDP – though no one seems to be entirely sure how.


The line that we are witnessing a “southern recovery” was neutralised. The economy is growing faster in the north than it is in the south. Though whether voters in the north will fully absorb that news remains to be seen. 

In other words, today we saw what appears to be an ultra-political budget from an ultra-political chancellor.

Over the coming days people will scan the polls in attempt to divine how successful the politics have been. Though I suspect those Tories predicting – or hoping for – a big shift will be disappointed. But what was significant was what the Budget tells us about how Osborne, Cameron and the rest of the Tory high command view the political landscape. They did not feel the need for any great game-changing giveaways. Rightly or wrongly, they think it is their election to lose.

Given that George Osborne had snatched away most of his cards, and burnt them in front of his eyes, Ed Miliband played a poor hand quite well in response. His lines mainly consisted of the tired old Tory baby-eater tropes, but he delivered them more effectively than in previous years. Unfortunately, he was undermined by lack-luster support from the benches behind him. Rightly or wrongly, most Labour MPs think it’s the Tories election to lose as well.

So, today George Osborne’s reputation as the most political Tory chancellor since the war was cemented. Wrongly.

Contrary to popular wisdom, Osborne has spent much of this parliament getting the politics wrong – on occasion disastrously so. His decision to cut the top rate of tax in 2012 nearly destroyed the Tories electoral chances. He has failed to counteract the – false – charge that the gap between rich and poor has been growing on his watch. And as we saw today, he had to close down a political flank he needlessly opened in December when opted to run a £25 billion surplus.

In the end, it’s George Osborne’s economic – not political – stewardship that has saved him and his party. Record low inflation. Record employment. Record low interest rates. Faster growth than any other advanced economy. These aren’t the products of Treasury spin, but economic facts. 




Osborne’s critics may counter that these are also the products of good fortune, rather than good judgment. But they certainly wouldn’t have been saying that had inflation been soaring, unemployment rising, interest rates were being ratcheted up and growth stagnating.

In any case, whether George Osborne is a brilliant chancellor or a lucky chancellor is an interesting but ultimately meaningless debate. The defining issue of this parliament has always been whether the economic and political cycles would align before May 2015. It’s been touch and go at times, but they have.


Privately, some Tory MPs will be nervous tonight. Many of them were hoping for a tax-cutting bonanza to lay in front of sceptical voters, and they have been denied it. Labour MPs will be quietly relieved. They feared this would be the moment George Osborne threw austerity to the winds and bought the 2015 general election.

But David Cameron and George Osborne never viewed this Budget as a game changer, but as a game closer. It is the Budget they pencilled in five years ago, to underpin the election campaign they pencilled in five years ago to deliver the election victory they pencilled in five years ago.

George Osborne had no new rabbits. But after today Labour are all out of foxes.

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